Philippines property boom or bust?

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Land prices have risen considerably in Asia, and the Philippines is no exception, even if the country is no laggard. Even if the USA, Japan and EU are weak, the Asian and Latin American economies are still pretty robust, and at the end of the day, these economies can be expected to drive most global growth for the next 5-10 years. So what can we expect?

1. Lower interest rates. There are economists talking of the US treasury rate on 10-year bonds falling to 1%. This does not surprise me. The implication I suggest however is greater in those countries which are not overly indebted, i.e. Asian countries. I'm expecting a property boom, and you can expect this wealth growth to feed into consumption, before the USA and EU rejoin the party. Also expect Western investment in Asian property. The driver for this will undoubtedly be yields. Consider that Philippine rental yields are very attractive at 8.62%. Indonesia is less attractive for personal investors, because of regulatory issues, but even Indonesia might appeal with future reforms. Certainly the Philippines looks like the best market, for reasons like their 18-mth 'extended' stay on a tourist visa. In fact they are higher than they were several years ago, highlighting the fact that income growth is outpacing construction in these uncertain times. 

                                     Source: Trading Economics.

2. Strong fundamentals for the Philippines with high commodity prices, high remittances and of course the strong business outsourcing market. 

3. Improving governance - We have yet to see much change here. There is a top-down push for anti-corruption, i.e. The sanctioning of the Chief Justice and former President Arroyo, but this might well just be a changing of the guard, rather than heralding the end of corruption. 

Indoubtedly global debt levels have topped out, but don't for a moment think that this boom is over as long as 70% of the global population is liberalising. This is the Industrial Revolution...that one in the 17-18th century was a baby in some respects. This is just as significant. In fact, we might even expect political reform before the end of it. More realistically, I'd expect such reform because of a 2030s crash...but that's a long time off. 

Andrew Sheldon NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Foreclosed Japan Guide Applied Critical Thinking, Strategy, Integrity Investments SheldonThinks

The attractions of living in the Philippines

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Living in the Philippines is not such an attractive proposition for most people. When I look at the demographics its apparent to me that most of the foreigners whom come to the Philippines do so for the following reasons:
1. Business: Most westerners are stationed here with a foreign company
2. Diplomat: Another group of foreigners are here as diplomats, or as a bureaucrat paid by their government under the administration of the Asian Development Bank, or other aid programs.
3. Retirees: There are alot of old men here that want to enjoy the companionship of young girls. Can't say I blame them, they are gorgeous, and they aren't all poor, uneducated factory girls.

So basically when you look at the demographics its only the seniors that come here. Young people tend to come here for a week or two and thats it. So what is the attraction for the older guys. Well if you focus on where they are living, its readily apparent.
1. Girls: Most retirees live around the girl and beach districts like Angeles City, Subic, Boracay as well as Metro Manila apartments near Makati and Ermita I guess. Whether you are into prostitutes, or just girls to offer you a nursing hand to an 'old soldier', they have the girls to keep you fighting.
2. Cheap cost of living: Yes the Philippines is cheap, but not extraordinarily so when you consider the costs. Much depends on where you live, and how modestly. Its easy enough to buy a $US60,000 apartment in Manila or a house outside the city limits, but utilities are not cheap. If you want a western diet it does not even make sense to eat outside because the shopping malls are owned by just 2 billionaires. Plus add the $US40/mth cost of a visa renewal and you realise that you dont have much left over for those $1 beers. It does not help that everything costs more because you are a foreigner. Of course it helps if you have support from local family.
3. Entertainment: I think the Philippines has among the best live music performers in the world and at little cost. I am not talking about Britney Spears, though she was here, but the local pirated act.
4. Treatment: There is a great deal of respect for foreigners in the Philippines. Well at some level you are a sucker whom might as well feed their families, but I do think there is a genuine respect for 'American values'. I dont know if thats a repudiation of Chinese values, or reflects their appreciation for the US military effort in WWII, but certainly the attitude is strongest among military personnel.

OK, this must have been a bad day because I found some other positives for living in the Philippines. See http://life4expats.blogspot.com/2007/12/living-in-philippines.html.