The appeal of Philippines property

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I have been writing about the appeal of Philippines property for about 7 years now. The Philippines is in the midst of a property rally that will last for another debate. Now, we are seeing signs of serious support for the boom from Asia, and you can expect more interest still from outside the region for several reasons:

1. Rapid population growth - the country's population is growing 2% per annum

2. High urbanisation rate - the nation's population is rapidly descending upon the cities - as is always the case in industrialising economies.

3. Rising incomes - The Philippines holds a unique position in the business outsourcing market. Its people are 'uniquely' friendly, English speakers, and well-placed to serve in various customer service, call centre, sales roles in the future. These skills of course have to develop; but its less of a leap for them than other cultures; which is a 'value distinction'.

4. Visa restrictions - This is plausibly only a short term value, but the Philippines offers the most relaxed visa restrictions in the world. You can stay in the country 18 months before requiring a visa, and there are steps to make it even more liberal. 

5. Safer place - There is reason to think the Philippines is safer. The south has been constrained 'investment wise' by Muslim terrorism and militancy that saw some foreigners subject to extortion, or killed. A truce between the Muslims and the Philippines government is giving people confidence in peace. In any respect, the associated violence has largely been confined to the southern island of Mindanao. Investors might see this as an opportunity in the south, or a tentative reason to stay in the north/central archipelago. 

6. Familiar legal system - People will appreciate the Western legal system, the centrality of the Philippines in Asia. The place has a number of discount airlines servicing it, i.e. Cebu Pacific, Air Asia, Tiger Airways, Scoot and others. Corruption remains a problem, but there have been strides at the top to tackle that problem. The chief justice of the country has been impeached, numerous senators implicated, and the plot thickens. None of this really reflects the small investor. 

7. Happy, friendly people - The Filipino is of course a source of joy and a friendly face. They are always a pleasure to be around. 

8. The place - Not the prettiest place in the world - but then expect future development to hold more on offer. Most appealing places these days are products of people's imagination. This imagination is in short supply in the Philippines; and scarcer still outside of Metro Manila. This inevitably means 'the life' sought by foreigners is either in a restricted number of resort centres like Boracay, Bohol, Cebu and Davao, or in the city centres like Ortigas, Makati, the Fort and Trinoma (in Manila), or pplausibly places like Vigan City and Baguio in the north. These developments are invariably controlled by a few very powerful local business people. 

I have said a lot about the Philippines; so feel free to read more. Its early days still given that yields are very attractive, and most of the investment to date has been driven by expats rather than foreigners. Yields remain around 7%, so these countries are cheap - particularly in comparison to other Western nations. Moreover the incomes are rising as fast as the property prices, so yields are largely preserved. We are destined to see more Western money flowing into these countries. A direct investment in property is one of the few effective ways; as well as offering a lifestyle benefit. Being an Australian, living in NZ, I come to the Philippines annually to shop and basically to escape the winter. 

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Gates open to foreign investment in the Philippines

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The Philippines government has further opened the doors to Westerners in a move that is destined to cause dramatic changes in the nation in several respects:

1. Boost condo investment by foreigners as they see the Philippines increasingly as an investment destination

2. Boost foreigner relationships with Filipinos

3. Boost retirements in the Philippines

4. Boost the appeal of the Philippines as a holiday destination

5. Boost the appeal of resort accommodation and lifestyle provisioning

The move by the Philippines government is to offer foreigners a rolling opportunity to obtain a 6-month visa in the nation, with the prospect of up to a 36-month stay. This is big news when you consider:

1. The dismay of many Western governments for their country, or their governments

2. The lower cost of living in the Philippines, i.e. The relative ease for foreigners to set up residence and live off pensions, or otherwise live off the land.

3. The spectre of Western governments struggling with the pension obligations of their citizens

Now, in fairness, the Philippines is not exactly ready or 'to Western standards' when it comes to lifestyle. i.e. The problems as I see it are the following:

1. The enfranchisement of the Philippines - that has turned the country into a boring experience. The exception of course is in the national capital and a few tourist centres. 

2. The pollution and the dire state of infrastructure. In this respect matters are getting dramatically better. i.e. The Fort City in Manila is a new modern city, and less corruption and strong economic growth has resulted in visible improvements. 

3. The traffic problem is still there as prosperous Filipinos are buying cars. This is a global issue of course. Few cities are very good at controlling traffic. Hold a thought for Manila's transit network. Its jeepney and bus networks are good value and efficient, and I'd expect similar from its rail service as it expands. 

Expect Metro Manila to be the 'Tokyo of the South' with rail networks connecting people quickly to different parts of the city. Manila has little love of rail now, but watch as that crowded network rapidly expands. That will occur because of the traffic, but also because the government has just greatly raised the fares, which will precipitate more spending rail connections. The implications is, you need a Philippines Property Guide, and you need to buy property investments in the right location to benefit from these shifts....I'd say with some urgency, as there will be a rapid rise in demand. Expect an Asian property demand. The Philippines and Indonesia already have among the most appealing yields in Asia (excluding Japan)...around 7%.

The most appealing places are city (Manila, Davao, Cebu) and inner city areas (Subic, Lipa, Tagaytay, Eton City, etc). Now, Manila is essentially a collection of village cities like Tokyo, just starting to be connected by rail.  Major developers are building new 'cute' local residential villages, however there are major hubs like Ortigas, Trinoma, Mall of Asia (on Manila Bay) and Makati. Makati City is the traditional centre of business, however that might be expected to change, as new industries overtake old, and even old businesses seek 'new infrastructural developments, rather than being imprisoned in anachronistic centres. The GreenBelt shopping centre in Makati City however retains some appeal. These areas are appealing because they are destined to attract the 'culture' and services that Westerners desire. Unfortunately, outside of Manila, its very much 'franchise' city because these places are simply poor, and correspondingly under-capitalised. This might change with more foreigners, as existing tourist havens built by foreigners have shown.

The other appealing aspect of the Philippines is:

1. Relatively 'hard currency' compared to Japanese Yen, the Euro and USD

2. Rapid population growth of 2%

3. Rapid rates of urbanisation

4. Rapid growth in incomes due to call centres, business outsourcing

5. Proximity to Asian growth centres

6. English is one of the 2 national languages (along with Tagalog)

7. Increasingly 'open gate' policy to foreigners

It does not get any better than in the Philippines; and we saw this trend start 8 year ago. My partner and I bought property for P700/m2; its not worth P2100/m2 based on an offer from a recent prospective buyer. That is a far higher rate of property price appreciation than in the West; and it will continue as interest rates are only now getting really cheap. This has all the makings of a property boom!

You can buy a condo in Manila from P2mil ($US40,000) upwards, though it depends on standards and target market. If you buy in down-market location, you will be tolerating over-use of services by poor relatives from the rural areas. i.e. You might find people parking in your car spot, being noisy, hanging out their laundry; not to mention the cheap dowdy looking façade of the property. Invest smart! 

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Placing Philippines property investment in its historic context

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I had some feedback from a reader. 

"Hi Andrew. Many years ago, I stumbled across your blog on investing and property. I also noticed you lived in Japan for sometime. I quite liked your thinking and analysis....I have family and business commitments in Japan. Currently I'm based in China. I'm looking for an investment property but am thinking Malaysia or Indonesia now. I can afford Australia but its still 40-60% overvalued in my opinion". 

Well I think Indonesia is a frontrunner with the Philippines. I prefer the Philippines because:

1. I think its a more trusted 'English' jurisdiction, though condos less reason for concern perhaps if you deal with major developers

2. Visa restrictions - I think foreigner demand like yourself is a big part of any property market, so tight visa restrictions in those countries give the upper hand to the Philippines. You can stay in the Philippines for 18mths before you have to leave. Now, that might not bother you if you are always flying around anyway, but it will impact on demand for property if you are looking for capital growth. It might not preclude Indonesia, since Indonesia might go the same way, however it might convince you to defer that 'Indonesian option'.

3. The Philippines is getting a big boost from remittances - these people work everywhere - relatives abroad

4. The Philippines is big in business-outsourced-process (BPO) market, and increasingly its teaching English as well, as many Chinese, Koreans and others come hear or communicate over the internet for anything from $3-7 per hour. 

5. The current Aquino administration has greatly cut corruption, so Western corporations are taking more interest. There is still a lot of government waste, and that will probably remain until the employment slack is absorbed.

6. The Philippines has a loose zoning regime, so if this is not the case in Indonesia, this might impact on people's decisions, but since foreigners' can't buy property unless they are married to a local, this might not help anyone. 

Most of these issues favour the Philippines over Indonesia, though I know Indonesia has also lagged...and it has perhaps also made some progress with corruption. Maybe the smog over Singapore says something else....a brush fire out of control :)

Personally though the beaches of islands in Bali probably have more appeal. You might find it comes down to the particular context of the opportunity, i.e. a bottom-up investment decision, taking the view that maybe both places merit consideration. For instance, Bohol in the Philippines is reputed to have good beaches, its close to Cebu, and a Japanese aid organisation is building an international airport there. Such infrastructure development might spell another tourist mecca like Boracay. 

As a side note, I think Australia is over-valued in some respects, but that's not to say I think property prices in Australia are going to collapse. I would however argue that:

1. Australia is vulnerable, and Asia is not on fundamentals

2. Asia has more growth upside

3. Business prospects are better in Asia....but its hard to go past Australia as a place to live if you don't mind an American-style fascist government

Andrew Sheldon NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Foreclosed Japan Guide Applied Critical Thinking, Strategy, Integrity Investments SheldonThinks

Bohol development underwritten by Japanese

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The latest news is that the Japanese government has approved $570 million in aid for the Philippines to build a new airport on Panglao Island, an island connected by a bridge to the city of Tagbilaran, on the greater island of Bohol. Bohol is a growing tourist attraction, both for Filipinos and Westerners. The island has however been a relatively under-capitalised centre for resort development in the past, but that seems destined to change. The Japanese of course will be keen to reform their welfare system, and I can't help thinking they have grander plans for a 'retirement centre' for elderly Japanese. Might Bohol be a gateway for Japan? Might we in future see Filipinos offering care to Japanese retirees/invalids by day, and working in Japanese-supporting call centres by night? 

There is the added value of tourism to the Philippines. The island of Bohol has a great expanse of white sand beaches, and it helps that Cebu, another popular nearby island is also an easy connection by ferry. I fully expect that the island will become a huge exotic paradise holiday resort to mirror the development of Boracay, which is by far dominated by Filipino developers. Bohol offers far greater potential because its larger. This should add to the appeal of the place, as there will be no doubt a dispersal of developments around the coastlines of Tangbilaran City. 

What is the message to investors? Now is the time to buy a beach strip of land and build a resort. I imagine there will be a raft of opportunities for condominium developments as well. An SM or Robinsons Mall, which have long spread from the major cities, will surely be coming to the island of Panglao. 

Japan had earlier expressed interest in funding an upgrade of the Legaspi City airport; so I'm not sure what to make of this development. Perhaps the aid agency through otherwise of the opportunity given that natural disasters have been an issue of late. Legaspi City is next to Mayon Volcano. This near-perfect conical peak was probably part of the appeal, but after the Japanese tsunami, perhaps it became the reason for an aversion to the city. I've not heard more on that proposal. 

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

When to retire in the Philippines?

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Many expatriate Filipinos living in the United States are inclined to retire in the Philippines. There are of course many reasons to do so, and not to do so. Among the reasons are:
1. Proximity to old school friends
2. Greater value for their savings
3. Greater opportunity to work in non-profits or opportunity for their children

The reasons not to are perhaps:
1. Nicer natural environment in the USA
2. Greater job satisfaction
3. Suffering is everywhere - you don't need to go to the Philippines
4. I'm no longer Filipino - I'm a balikbayan that no longer relates to homeland values
5. My savings are adequate such that I don't need to

These are different perspectives, and the reality is that one can choose both. The reality is that its never been easier to invest abroad, or to travel abroad. There are greater opportunities in property in the Philippines, and that is where most people make money - in property. this is becuase:
1. The Philippine population rate is growing 2% per annum - maybe America is the same given its Mexican influx - offsetting natural birth rate sluggishness
2. The rapid rise in incomes in the Philippines - whilst unskilled wage rates in the west flounder, and corresponding welfare/tax imposts rise, and govts screw up with inadequate provisions for this problem
3. The rapid rates of urbanisation - seeing provincial unemployed flock to the cities
4. The tightening land use restrictions - surely the 1991 Land Code will take effect sometime???

These are the trends which cannot be ignore, irrespective of any blow-off by excessive land prices. The rise in the PHP has been a phenomenon since 2005 - when it was P54. Today its close to support at P40. The question is whether this support for the USD is going to hold. I suspect it will. You don't have to believe me. You can watch and wait for a reversal.

The implication of a reversal, and it may consolidate for a time, is that it becomes more appealing to move any savings from the US to the Philippines to pay off interest-bearing debts. Buying property in the Philippines is a decision which depends on local fundamentals, which for the reasons mentioned, are good. Also yields on most property are very good given the added capital appreciation, and trend. Property will eventually become overpriced.

Andrew Sheldon NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Foreclosed Japan Guide Applied Critical Thinking, Strategy, Integrity Investments SheldonThinks

Philippines property boom or bust?

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Land prices have risen considerably in Asia, and the Philippines is no exception, even if the country is no laggard. Even if the USA, Japan and EU are weak, the Asian and Latin American economies are still pretty robust, and at the end of the day, these economies can be expected to drive most global growth for the next 5-10 years. So what can we expect?

1. Lower interest rates. There are economists talking of the US treasury rate on 10-year bonds falling to 1%. This does not surprise me. The implication I suggest however is greater in those countries which are not overly indebted, i.e. Asian countries. I'm expecting a property boom, and you can expect this wealth growth to feed into consumption, before the USA and EU rejoin the party. Also expect Western investment in Asian property. The driver for this will undoubtedly be yields. Consider that Philippine rental yields are very attractive at 8.62%. Indonesia is less attractive for personal investors, because of regulatory issues, but even Indonesia might appeal with future reforms. Certainly the Philippines looks like the best market, for reasons like their 18-mth 'extended' stay on a tourist visa. In fact they are higher than they were several years ago, highlighting the fact that income growth is outpacing construction in these uncertain times. 

                                     Source: Trading Economics.

2. Strong fundamentals for the Philippines with high commodity prices, high remittances and of course the strong business outsourcing market. 

3. Improving governance - We have yet to see much change here. There is a top-down push for anti-corruption, i.e. The sanctioning of the Chief Justice and former President Arroyo, but this might well just be a changing of the guard, rather than heralding the end of corruption. 

Indoubtedly global debt levels have topped out, but don't for a moment think that this boom is over as long as 70% of the global population is liberalising. This is the Industrial Revolution...that one in the 17-18th century was a baby in some respects. This is just as significant. In fact, we might even expect political reform before the end of it. More realistically, I'd expect such reform because of a 2030s crash...but that's a long time off. 

Andrew Sheldon NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Foreclosed Japan Guide Applied Critical Thinking, Strategy, Integrity Investments SheldonThinks

Building or buying a house in the Philippines

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Here is a foreigner/expatriate who has built a house in the Philippines. I might note several considerations:

1. The opportunity to build with local labour to lower your costs; as long as you tightly structure contracts and manage performance to ensure your expectations are closely realised

2. The opportunity to buy foreclosed properties - remembering that not all banks offer good value, and to check to ensure you are paying a reasonable price

3. Take the opportunity not just to find out the prices of property from websites like Sulit.com.ph, but to also talk to landowners around your areas of interest. Why? At face value property in the Philippines looks like a rather illiquid market. Well, you'd be surprised how many sellers are out there, but its harder to connect with them.

4. Foreigners are like gold mines to Filipinos; a dollar sign flashes before their eyes when they see one. Its engrained in them from the age of 5yo. Its all a big joke; but at the end of the day, its their 'inter-dependence' culture that pulls everyone down. The difference between you and some other rich Chinese Filipino is that they will probably be assured that you have money, and that you are less likely to be committed to someone. 

See this blog by an expatriate who has built a house in the Philippines. You might expect materials to be more expensive in the Visayas. See here.

Andrew Sheldon NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Foreclosed Japan Guide Applied Critical Thinking, Strategy, Integrity Investments SheldonThinks

The Philippines under seige

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The last two weeks has been a very interesting period in Philippine politics.

Noy Aquino is of course a so-called 'liberal progressive', who was elected to power on the basis of sentimentalism relating to his mother's recent death. His mother - Cory Aquino - was of course a lame-duck president who presided over a spate of failed military coups. She was supposed by the poor. She was eventually replaced by a former military leader Fidel Ramos, who orchestrated the BOT Law, and thus restored power to the Philippines. He was effective in timely implementation, though there is little wonder given the unfavourable terms he negotiated with foreign power companies. National Power Corp was left with onerous debts and electricity consumers were left paying expensive power...the most expensive in the world.

So there you have it, Philippine politics is divided between:

1. Liberal politicians supported by the media and the poor.

2. Conservatives, whether supported by landowners, military, who dominate power among corrupt officials.

The problem for both camps is that both sides are unthinking collectivists who are going to have little support for their policy initiatives. Noy Aquino is already off to a bad start. He is being condemned already for the following:

1. He was a lame duck senator - in 12 years he initiated 12 failed bills. He came to power on the basis that he would turn back corruption, and that he would free the poor from poverty.

2. He has struggled to establish his leadership credentials, as he has been dealing poorly with a series of 'brush fires' like the killing of 8 Chinese nationals in Manila. It was not the incident which resulted in his criticism, but the succession of follies after the incident.

The reality is that Noy Noy Aquino is not going to finish his 6-year presidential term. There are several reasons for believing this:

1. Who would want a lame duck president for 6 years - having just been elected

2. He is not popular among the military

3. He is not popular among the Conservatives, who will support the military because too many of them are corrupt to want Aquino investigating their misdeeds

4. The Thai military takeover highlights the 'practicality' of military takeovers. There was no foreign intervention. i.e. No sanctions, etc.

5. The top generals in the military are corrupt, and the same goes for the police. Expect them to be under scrutiny for the way they are appointed, i.e. Kickbacks for promotions, which was highlighted by the incompetency which resulted in this failed stand-off with the police in Manila recently.

The other alternative is of course an assasination of Noy Noy Aquino, but I think that is less likely. I would expect a takeover within a year. The implication is that we are going to see a collapse in the Philippines currency. For this reason I have some property advice - don't buy property there until the currency collapses. More details on our Property blog.

What will be the implication of a military takeover? Well the economy has been performing rather well of late for structural reasons, and increased tax receipts. I think poor 'military' administration will result in another Conservative Party supported leader, and I am guessing it will be Manny Villar. He is a very wealthy Filipino, with at least some 'roots' in poverty. I believe a good marketing campaign will see him depicted as the pin-up boy for the poor. A bit of promotion of his Eton City development might help as people drive along the Southern Tollway.

For those who want to support the resignation of Noy Noy Aquino - you will have to wish for a military takeover, his good judgement, or his assasination. Personally I prefer the military takeover because the country needs a shake-up, and as an investor, I appreciate the volatility. One day people will come to realise that democracy is nothing more than a system for legitimatising fascism. i.e. Tyranny of the minority or majority, its still tyranny. So good luck with that! Be sure to make lots of money, accumulate lots of guilt, then spend it on the poor to recoup your 'good grace'. :)

Andrew SheldonNZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate GuideForeclosed Japan GuideApplied Critical Thinking, Strategy, Integrity Investments SheldonThinks

Yields on Philippine rental apartments

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The Philippine property market is looking very strong. According to Global Property Guide the yield on an aprtment in Manila is around 9% per annum, making it the 6th best yields in the world. The best yields are on property in Jakarta (Indonesia) and Lima (Peru), which are offering 12% yields. I would suggest however that some regional cities in the Philippines offer far better investment returns. Lipa City near the commercial port of Batangas and the Subic Economic Zone are areas which will benefit from satellite developments to the Metro Manila area. Further afield, you can expect places like Lucena City (Quezon), Naga City (Bohol) and Lauag City (Ilocos Norte), Davao City among others to perform very well as well. Improving infrastructure in the Philippines will see call centres placed in these areas in future, and expect these developments to result in a rapid rise in relatively high paid jobs, as well as new entertainment precincts. The most attractive areas are those with recognised universities like La Salle Lipa City. Foreigners will appreciate the improved facilities in these places as well. Lipa City already has 3 shopping malls, new tollway connections to Batangas and Manila. It also has the advantage of higher elevation, so its an attractive place to live. Part of its appeal is that its not as high as Tagaytay, so its not covered in rain clouds, making it an attractive place to live. Its perched on the edge of the Taal Volcano, though not so close that you have to worry, and being to the south, the city is likely avoid any unlikely prospect of a volcaniclastic eruption. Lipa is close to Batangas, Manila, as well as those tourist areas like Nusugbu, Tagatyay and Puerto Gallera. The improvement to the tollway to Manila means it can take just 1 hour and 15mins to get to Manila. Ten years ago the same trip would have taken you 4 hours; 2 years ago it would haven taken 2 hours. This should be important information to prospective investors looking for places to invest. Lucena City is currently isolated from Manila. In another 10 years the freeway might well stretch to Lucena City, which will also place that city in far closer proximity to Manila, but also Lipa, which is also likely to benefit from any development by Manny Villar in the Eton City - Calamba City area.
You can learn more about buying in the Philippines from our Philippines Property report 2008. Buyers of this report will receive the 2010 (2nd edition) free when it is complete. The Philippines is confronting a presidential election in May 2010, so that will be something to watch. There should be no big surprises on the downside, though I suspect better leadership could see the Philippines attract a RE-RATING in future years.

Buying property in the Philippines

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According to a survey by Global Property Guide the Philippines ranks in 3rd place with the best yields on property - with Jakarta and Lima (Peru) in 1st and 2nd places. The average yield for a property in Manila is 10.99%. I much prefer the Philippines for lifestyle reasons and because of a number of other reasons:
1. Greater regulation means restrictions on where you build - so prospect of restricted property development looking forward
2. Strong population growth - this country is growing at 2% per annum, that's almost 2mil people a year
3. Job creation - The Philippines is the preferred business outsourcing base because Filipinos are the best diplomats. Laxed work ethic aside, they have potential for more of this 'structural' shifting of jobs from the west.
4. Remittance - A great deal of money is flowing from expats abroad to the home country, as well as BFs sending GFs money.
5. Reform - The Philippines government on balance is getting its act together. Infrastructure is being built. The country could do with some ports reform, but is otherwise on a positive path. I note that they are increasingly building infrastructure for tourism around the country.
6. China proximity - The Philippines is close to some of the biggest and fastest growing countries in the world, so some of the benefits can be expected to rub off in terms of trade and tourism. There is a new airport flight from Lauag (Ilocos Norte) to China, and expect more of these links to draw tourists. Not just China, but Korea and Japan.
7. Tourist friendly - The Philippines is without a doubt the most tourist friendly country in the world. They are very diplomatic and engaging. Great sense of life, very personable. Gradually you can expect them to get their service culture in place, and a worth ethic. Better still - you can stay in the country on a tourist visa for 18 months without even leaving. Try doing that in Indonesia.

My advice is to check out some of the rural cities - as opposed to focusing on the Manila. My picks are Naga City, Vigan City, Lucena City and Davao City. If you need more info on buying property in the Philippines, I have written a 2 volume eBook "Buying Phililppines Property" on the topic. See my bookstore for more information. Currently updating the late 2008 edition - so I'm forwarding the 2010 edition to those who purchase the 2008 edition.