Japanese funds new Manila light rail lines

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The Japanese government under its aid development program is offering support to the Philippines government to develop a 2nd line under the Manila Light Rail Transit (LRT) program. This is the 3rd project after Japan helped fund the first light rail line in 1984, and the second MRT-2 in 2003. The 3rd rail line, referred to as MRT-3, was completed in 1999 using private funding under the 'Build-Operate-Transfer' (BOT) route. 

The funds will probably be used to fund the extension of the Yellow and Purple lines into the outer areas of Greater Manila. This will mean beyond the current terminal stations of Santalan (Yellow Line Extension) will be extended to Bacoor City) and Baclaran (Purple Line Extension) will extend the line to Rizal. These developments will of course ease congestion on the highways, as well as offering better connections to the city. Eventually it seems probable that the Yellow Line will extend to Batangas City, and that the Purple Line will circum-navigate Lake Laguna, whilst its western extension goes north to San Fernando and beyond. This is of course speculation and probably another 10 years away in terms of development scheduling.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Bohol development underwritten by Japanese

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The latest news is that the Japanese government has approved $570 million in aid for the Philippines to build a new airport on Panglao Island, an island connected by a bridge to the city of Tagbilaran, on the greater island of Bohol. Bohol is a growing tourist attraction, both for Filipinos and Westerners. The island has however been a relatively under-capitalised centre for resort development in the past, but that seems destined to change. The Japanese of course will be keen to reform their welfare system, and I can't help thinking they have grander plans for a 'retirement centre' for elderly Japanese. Might Bohol be a gateway for Japan? Might we in future see Filipinos offering care to Japanese retirees/invalids by day, and working in Japanese-supporting call centres by night? 

There is the added value of tourism to the Philippines. The island of Bohol has a great expanse of white sand beaches, and it helps that Cebu, another popular nearby island is also an easy connection by ferry. I fully expect that the island will become a huge exotic paradise holiday resort to mirror the development of Boracay, which is by far dominated by Filipino developers. Bohol offers far greater potential because its larger. This should add to the appeal of the place, as there will be no doubt a dispersal of developments around the coastlines of Tangbilaran City. 

What is the message to investors? Now is the time to buy a beach strip of land and build a resort. I imagine there will be a raft of opportunities for condominium developments as well. An SM or Robinsons Mall, which have long spread from the major cities, will surely be coming to the island of Panglao. 

Japan had earlier expressed interest in funding an upgrade of the Legaspi City airport; so I'm not sure what to make of this development. Perhaps the aid agency through otherwise of the opportunity given that natural disasters have been an issue of late. Legaspi City is next to Mayon Volcano. This near-perfect conical peak was probably part of the appeal, but after the Japanese tsunami, perhaps it became the reason for an aversion to the city. I've not heard more on that proposal. 

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

When to retire in the Philippines?

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Many expatriate Filipinos living in the United States are inclined to retire in the Philippines. There are of course many reasons to do so, and not to do so. Among the reasons are:
1. Proximity to old school friends
2. Greater value for their savings
3. Greater opportunity to work in non-profits or opportunity for their children

The reasons not to are perhaps:
1. Nicer natural environment in the USA
2. Greater job satisfaction
3. Suffering is everywhere - you don't need to go to the Philippines
4. I'm no longer Filipino - I'm a balikbayan that no longer relates to homeland values
5. My savings are adequate such that I don't need to

These are different perspectives, and the reality is that one can choose both. The reality is that its never been easier to invest abroad, or to travel abroad. There are greater opportunities in property in the Philippines, and that is where most people make money - in property. this is becuase:
1. The Philippine population rate is growing 2% per annum - maybe America is the same given its Mexican influx - offsetting natural birth rate sluggishness
2. The rapid rise in incomes in the Philippines - whilst unskilled wage rates in the west flounder, and corresponding welfare/tax imposts rise, and govts screw up with inadequate provisions for this problem
3. The rapid rates of urbanisation - seeing provincial unemployed flock to the cities
4. The tightening land use restrictions - surely the 1991 Land Code will take effect sometime???

These are the trends which cannot be ignore, irrespective of any blow-off by excessive land prices. The rise in the PHP has been a phenomenon since 2005 - when it was P54. Today its close to support at P40. The question is whether this support for the USD is going to hold. I suspect it will. You don't have to believe me. You can watch and wait for a reversal.

The implication of a reversal, and it may consolidate for a time, is that it becomes more appealing to move any savings from the US to the Philippines to pay off interest-bearing debts. Buying property in the Philippines is a decision which depends on local fundamentals, which for the reasons mentioned, are good. Also yields on most property are very good given the added capital appreciation, and trend. Property will eventually become overpriced.

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